A decade after the UK entered into a rushed referendum that polarised the nation and triggered chaos, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly fraught and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have examined the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly divided society where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim this point is looming, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in academia but hardly any politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer advocates unification or the current situation. Each writes two pieces that seek impartiality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling economic and societal statistics, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions cover national emblems, levies, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said the writer. "Debate implies an acceptance of the concept that there could be valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they prefer unification but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified points, he said. "One side will succeed here and somebody will ultimately not succeed but all factions has has something to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."
