Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency caused by the announcement of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – briefly – to have been stabilised. A Washington representative spoke of "substantial progress" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its response: another massive barrage of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Diplomacy and Destruction
The sequence of opposing developments captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, diplomatic battles are waged: optimistic declarations are delivered from various governments. Significant resources is allocated on restraining particular approaches. By night, Moscow brutally reminds the world that, for them, war remains the primary tool for achieving "resolution".
Nighttime Reality
As military strikes developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's vulnerability was revealed. Ukraine is able to track missile launches from across the border, a capability afforded by timely intelligence. From observation points, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been deployed to intercept incoming guided weapons streaked across the sky – sophisticated military planes provided to Ukraine by European allies.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's air-defence systems engaged: defensive missiles fired to intercept a Russian ballistic missile. This was a modern interception technology at work, probably supplied through allied countries. Every firing creates sudden vibrations, causing tremors. The moment of terror quickly becomes sober acceptance: perhaps the incoming missile won't strike its target this time, sparing the city from devastation and additional electricity failures.
Continuous Dangers
Not long after, a automatic firearm fired at a drone close by, part of a mobile-fire group – probably imported technology. Sadly, the bullets missed the opposing UAV – it maintained course toward its target.
With pauses, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv greeted the morning news: multiple fatalities, destruction and infrastructure problems in many homes as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As always, everyone still went about their day – living the war. But those full day illustrated Ukraine's vital need on Western support – a need that European nations are demonstrably unable to substitute in the near term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The detailed framework from US administration generated strong feelings, debate and deep concern – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after prior negotiation attempts and bilateral conferences.
Every new initiative from US leadership unfolds according to the same pattern: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, effectively counters. They stabilise the situation but never actually secure success. This pattern will, undoubtedly, continue.
Strategic Calculations
It is convenient to criticize specific actors of repeatedly advocating Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. US administration functions according to a premise well known to international relations experts: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have been unable to protect through force. The US administration believes that it is unrealistic to force Russia to abandon the territory that it presently holds in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The challenge is that while acknowledging this situation, American administration does minimal to discourage Russia, through statements or actions, from believing that the current condition will not shift further in its favour in the months ahead.
Divergent Views
Therefore, the Kremlin is convinced that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its supporters are coming close to fatigue. Their reason to sign a deal that does not give them the maximum possible gain is virtually nonexistent. There may be numerous efforts to stop fighting, but they will persist as long as Russia's government remains completely certain in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still hold out, progressively conceding lives and land but averting a total frontline collapse until conditions improve in its benefit.
Present Conditions
Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, subjective factors are coming into play: personal goals to broker a ceasefire and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Kyiv's twin challenges – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to unite the population around the flag against any initiative Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their priority does not move to internal issues. And although their mission will now be considerably more difficult after latest incidents, it remains quite doubtful that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These opposing factors are guiding negotiations.
Summary and Prospects
It took a only one week to terminate the proposed articles of the current initiative. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by US administration, opposition by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with calming attempts of diplomats, and finally, recent disclosures, all did their job.
While new proposals based on previous concepts are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter political attacks from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and reflect certain reluctance to change the course of events, if they remain united and enhance their military capacity at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the foreseeable future, mainly require continued Western support.
