Just eight weeks in the past that the Villa attacker found himself on the Stadium of Light pitch, seeming perplexed while Unai Emery admonished him over failing to anticipate a through-ball. During that period, as the club endured a six-game winless run, it wasn't clear if Rogers' form were an indicator or the reason of the team's more general malaise.
“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”
This weekend, in contrast, the touchline reaction was entirely far more favourable. After the England international curled home his brace-sealing goal to reclaim Villa's lead, the Spanish tactician discarded his winter coat, opened his arms and roared. The team marched on to a 10th successive win and despite not winning their initial half-dozen matches, are somehow only three points adrift of table-toppers Arsenal.
Are They Genuine Challengers?
It remains a rather hard query to address. Past precedent, a general sense of this institution, suggests not. Furthermore, their performances haven't been entirely convincing during this run, even as the victories have stacked up.
As per statistical analysis, on just two occasions have Villa registered an expected goals figure significantly higher than the opposition. For a team who have strung together ten consecutive victories, Villa seem strangely fragile – yet currently the tight outcomes are swinging for them.
The Reliant Strategy
The current approach appears to be to trade blows with an opponent and then rely on their talisman to bail them out with some precise efforts. It happened away to Leeds, it happened at West Ham, and again against United.
The initial strike stemmed from an exquisite effort, arced precisely inside the post from a wide position. The follow-up goal acted as a somewhat messier replica of goal number one as he seized on a setup by his strike partner.
“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”
How Long Can This Continue?
Reason suggests otherwise. Against United, the opposition had a greater number of attempts and more shots on target. They have triumphed in eight consecutive games by a single goal. They have allowed goals in all except one of those games.
Regression to the mean could be the most significant challenge the club must confront over the coming weeks. Their key man, surely, cannot keep on drilling his shots into the net's top corner indefinitely.
A Case for Belief
Could it be another reality where, instead of outcomes regressing to match displays, the level of play rises to match the results. Important figures might still rediscover their best form.
- Ollie Watkins could start scoring again.
- The attacking talent might become the player he was in Germany.
- The defensive duo are set to come back from the treatment room, bolstering a sometimes shaky backline.
Perhaps there is in that the possibility for a sustained push, yet it seems unlikely cannot keep relying on one man.
Relishing the Unlikely
But then, nobody expected this. Few believed Aston Villa would occupy third at Christmas. And most definitely earlier this season, nobody thought the young forward by the end of the year would be spearheading a hunt for the title and appearing as a crucial England player.
The current run should be enjoyed precisely because it seems so surreal. As Rogers stood in front of the Villa faithful after the match orchestrating the applause, it was clear to be loving the experience. A feeling he has rightly earned. Such periods are rare in football and should be relished.
